🧭 Bitcoin COMPASS CHECK — October 2025 Score 8.6 / 10
Multilayer Audit of the Bitcoin Multilayer Compasses NEXUSLAYER
This monthly COMPASS CHECK is the audit of forecasts/compasses made through all NEXUSLAYER systems during October 2025.
It measures not opinion but precision.How the structural calls of the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily compasses aligned with actual market reality.
It is not written to defend a view.
It is written to track how well structure performed under stress.
🧭 COMPASS CHECK — OCTOBER 2025 | SCORE 8.6 / 10
Global Audit of the Bitcoin & Macro Compasses · NEXUSLAYER
Florian Jumel · October 31 2025
“A compass is only useful if its needle is tested against the terrain.”
STRUCTURE DOES NOT PREDICT — IT VERIFIES.
It measures coherence under pressure, not conviction after the fact.
MARKET CONTEXT — OCTOBER 2025
State of play from reports:
The Monthly (Oct) framed a defended floor around $110–111k, a capped ceiling $115–117k, and a base-case range $112–118k, with upside contingent on ETF breadth; macro tone supportive but “not yet a spark.”
Early October Weekly (Oct 6–12) captured a fresh-ATH hangover vibe (spot hovering ~$124k, acceptance beneath resistance; stretch lanes 126.5k and 129–131k coded as beacons) while warning that continuation required flow confirmation.
Late October Weekly (Oct 27–Nov 2) documented the post-shakeout coil near 106–110k, with macro still “permissive,” VIX mid-teens, DXY just under 99, and gold elevated; the guidance emphasized defense at rails, confirmation above 118k only with breadth.
Daily layer color: Liquidity strong, macro constructive, narrative firm; composites around the upper 60s with explicit guardrails (e.g., DXY > 98.5, VIX > 20 as risk trims).
Synthesis of reality vs map:
October traced exactly what the stack encoded: early-month acceptance under a high lid, mid-month digestion, late-month compression near the defended floor. Upside lacked sustained ETF breadth; downside breaks were bought near the rails — a coil without thrust, consistent with the Monthly/Weekly base cases.
Bitcoin traded inside a silent compression corridor.
Opening ≈ 121 500 USD
Mid-month flush ≈ 110 800 USD
Post-PCE rebound ≈ 116 200 USD
Close ≈ 111 300 USD
Macro backdrop:
Fed and ECB on pause · Cut expectations Q1 2026
DXY 98.2 → 99.1 · UST10Y 4.08 → 3.95 %
ETF flows BTC +480 M USD · ETH +900 M USD
→ Macro cushion, not thrust.
→ Liquidity intact, sentiment anaesthetized.
“October felt like collective breath-holding — conviction asleep, fear anesthetized.”
METHODOLOGY
Scenario Accuracy (40 %)
Trigger Discipline (25 %)
Flow Integration (20 %)
Psychological Read (15 %)
All compasses audited ex-post vs real market data
DAILY COMPASSES ( 31 ISSUES )
Focus → intraday liquidity · derivatives · ETF breadth confirmation
Reality → no false ignition · coils tracked · breadth wait disciplined.
╔════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ Scenario Hit Rate ████████░░ 84 % ║
║ Trigger Discipline █████████░ 86 % ║
║ Flow Integration ████████░░ 84 % ║
║ Psychological Read ███████░░░ 81 % ║
╚════════════════════════════════════════╝
Composite Score 8.4 / 10
Strength → volatility restraint · level precision
Weakness → mild optimism on stretch lanes early-month
WEEKLY COMPASSES ( 4 ISSUES )
Week 1 → “Acceptance below resistance — coil likely.” ✓
Week 2 → “Defend 105–108 k rails · gate 118 k requires breadth.” ✓
Week 3 → “Liquidity cushion · macro drift · no thrust.” ✓
Week 4 → “Compression persists · liquidity awake not loud.” ✓
╔════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ Scenario Hit Rate █████████░ 85 % ║
║ Trigger Discipline █████████░ 85 % ║
║ Flow Integration █████████░ 88 % ║
║ Psychological Read ███████░░░ 81 % ║
╚════════════════════════════════════════╝
Composite Score 8.5 / 10
Strength → macro rhythm coherence
Weakness → ETH-rotation slightly underweighted
MONTHLY COMPASS
Base case → sideways 112–118 k · floor 110 k · ceiling 117 k
Stretch gate 122 k only with ETF breadth confirmation.
Reality → exact fit · no break · structure held.
╔════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ Scenario Hit Rate █████████░ 86 % ║
║ Trigger Discipline ██████████ 88 % ║
║ Flow Integration █████████░ 88 % ║
║ Psychological Read ███████░░░ 82 % ║
╚════════════════════════════════════════╝
Composite Score 8.6 / 10
Bias neutralized · SIF balanced · no derivative over-extension.
SPM · MWM MODULE OBSERVATION
SPM (Stretch Path Mapper) → Dormant state · no new rungs triggered.
Ladder memory active at 108 k · 114 k · 118 k · 122 k · 128 k.
MWM (Macro & Flow Watch) → CPI and DXY tilts aligned to base branch.
No shock branch activation · macro coherence preserved.
GLOBAL SYNTHESIS
All layers converged within 0.2 points ( 8.4 – 8.6 ).
Liquidity and macro cushioned the system · derivatives remained orderly.
No bias injection · no discretionary override.
╔════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ Liquidity Layer ███████▓░ 73 % ║
║ Derivatives Layer ██████░░░ 66 % ║
║ Macro Layer ███████░░ 72 % ║
║ Psychology Layer ██████░░░ 69 % ║
║ Narrative Coherence ███████░░ 74 % ║
╚════════════════════════════════════════╝
System Integrity ≈ 86 %
→ Structure held under compression · discipline intact.
INTEGRITY VERDICT
Structural Coherence █████████░ 90 %
Psychological Reflexivity ███████░░ 82 %
Bias-Detection Depth ███████░░ 85 %
Temporal Precision ██████░░░ 78 %
TOTAL INTEGRITY INDEX ≈ 85.5 % ≈ SCORE 8.6 / 10
“The number is not the truth. The behaviour is.”
The system did not try to be right — it remained honest.
Evidence replaced belief · terrain confirmed direction.
WHAT STRUCTURE LEARNED IN OCTOBER
1 · Liquidity can sustain confidence even without momentum.
2 · Volatility suppression is not stability — it is pre-decision breathing.
3 · Psychological silence is part of the cycle.
4 · Coherence remains a discipline, not a signal.
“Markets forget fast. Structure remembers.”
SYSTEM VERDICT
October validated the discipline of NEXUSLAYER.
Each layer functioned as designed… adaptive, neutral, self-reflexive.
Macro matched · flows aligned · psychology held.
No overreach · no reactivity · clarity through repetition.
Integrity Confirmed ✅
Structure Verified ✅
Coherence Maintained ✅
SOURCE MAP
Monthly and Weekly´s:
Daily´s via Substack Notes:
System → Bitcoin Nexuslayermatrix invented by F.Jumel
Certain parts of the underlying system are not publicly accessible. Core structures, data models, and mathematical formulations remain private and are not disclosed in this publication.
FINAL INTEGRITY CHECK
Matrix Conformity OK
Logical Consistency OK
Emotional Neutrality Balanced
Temporal Alignment Verified
Cross-Domain Resonance OK
Ethical Coherence OK
Dynamic Alignment Index 85.5 %
Source Coherence Cross-Checked
NEXUSLAYER | Global Multi-Layer Bitcoin & Macro Navigator
Florian Jumel · October Audit 2025
The goal was never prediction… it was coherence.
Thank you for reading, questioning, and thinking with me.
CONCLUSION
Structure does not predict. It verifies.
Discipline turns information into navigation.
Structure without self-critique is machinery.
Self-critique without structure is morality.
Truth emerges only when both test each other.
The COMPASS CHECK is the mirror that keeps bias small and orientation sharp.
October proved once again:
Liquidity is cushion, breadth is ignition, discipline is edge.
The map remains clear.
November begins.
Thank you for reading. I hope this gives you clarity and orientation or at least information.
If you’re ready to move beyond noise and headlines, and want to navigate multi-layer through structural & psychological currents
— NEXUSLAYER is your compass.
Join now. Don’t predict. Navigate. Structure thinks before reaction.
— Florian Jumel
NEXUSLAYER | Bitcoin Coherence